Microsoft’s Bing or DuckDuckGo in all probability received’t disrupt Google’s dominance in search, mentioned Apple senior vp of companies Eddy Cue — however AI companies simply might.
Cue was returning to a courtroom in Washington, DC the place he final testified within the Justice Division’s trial towards Google’s search monopoly in September 2023. In the course of the present cures trial on Wednesday, Cue mentioned that within the time since, well-funded generative AI upstarts have made such important developments that they may finally disrupt that monopoly — maybe extra successfully than the courtroom might.
Cue was additionally, nevertheless, there to defend a major supply of Apple’s income: the funds Google presents for default search engine placement on Apple’s Safari browser.
After the 2023 trial, Decide Amit Mehta discovered that Google illegally monopolized the net search market, partly via agreements just like the Safari deal. For the final two and a half weeks, Google and the DOJ have pitched Mehta on what he ought to (or shouldn’t) do to repair the issue. The DOJ says Google must be pressured to share helpful search knowledge with opponents and spin off its Chrome browser, whereas Google (which plans to enchantment the sooner ruling) needs solely restrictions on the offers Mehta deemed unfairly exclusionary. And somewhat than barring its Apple deal altogether, it could make Google give Apple more flexibility to signal extra default search agreements throughout its numerous gadgets or in non-public searching mode.
Cue argued Wednesday that speedy AI developments imply the antitrust menace Mehta recognized is shrinking. For the primary time in 22 years, Cue mentioned, Apple noticed search quantity decline in its Safari browser final month — a aspect impact of customers in search of extra info from AI chatbots. The DOJ, unsurprisingly, disagrees. It’s not unusual for technological improvement to outpace the gradual trudge of the courtroom system, however the authorities says that tempo isn’t quick sufficient to repair a persistent market problem.
Apple has loads of pores and skin within the sport right here — the DOJ beforehand revealed it rakes in $20 billion in funds from Google yearly. Google’s proposed cures might cut back it, however they’d additionally open up Apple’s choices and protect a lot of its income circulate. The DOJ’s, in the meantime, might wipe out that money circulate altogether. Cue appeared bewildered that Apple might get the quick finish of the stick for a punishment supposedly inflicted on Google. The concept the courtroom might determine Google did one thing unsuitable after which let it save cash at Apple’s expense, he mentioned, “simply appears loopy to me.”
Google might even preserve its prime Safari placement with out a deal within the quick time period, Cue mentioned. “We don’t actually have a selection immediately,” he testified. Even when Apple might lower a brand new default cope with one other firm, Google is nonetheless the most effective service accessible for purchasers, in order that they’d in all probability search it out — and Apple wouldn’t get a lower. Cue mentioned he’s “misplaced loads of sleep” over the prospect of shedding the Google deal, and warned it could impression Apple’s means to make new merchandise.
Cue additionally instructed Mehta he “can’t say I disagree” along with his evaluation that Apple was disincentivized from constructing its personal search engine due to its cope with Google. However, he added, “we are able to’t do all the things,” and since Google is actually good at what it does, Apple prefers to deal with areas the place it may provide distinctive worth.
There’s “a lot better potential as a result of there are new entrants which might be attacking the issue differently”
AI might finally change all of this, Cue testified. Apple is already exploring including AI search choices, although it acknowledges they’ll’t but exchange conventional search engines like google and yahoo. “So far, they’re simply not ok,” he mentioned.
Cue mentioned “ok” might come before he anticipated. He mentioned there’s “a lot better potential as a result of there are new entrants which might be attacking the issue differently.” Giant language mannequin (LLM) AI firms haven’t constructed a strong sufficient search index to substitute for Google but, he mentioned, however combining an LLM with search might allow them to use a smaller index successfully quickly.
Though he is backing Google’s combat to preserve its search offers, he appeared to acknowledge that the DOJ’s proposal to syndicate Google’s search index might get AI rivals up to velocity even quicker.
Cue cautioned the choose that tech is not like different industries, and giants typically fall even with out courtroom intervention. “Once I obtained to Silicon Valley, all the finest firms, or probably the most profitable firms, both don’t exist immediately or are considerably smaller and fewer impactful,” Cue mentioned, pointing to firms like HP, Solar Microsystems, and Intel. Within the know-how area, being an incumbent may not provide the identical advantages it does in different markets. “We’re not an oil firm, we’re not toothpaste. These are issues which might be going to final eternally,” he mentioned. “It’s possible you’ll not want an iPhone 10 years from now.” After practically 4 a long time at Apple, Cue now sees AI as “an enormous technological shift.”
Placing himself within the choose’s sneakers, Cue instructed Mehta, “we’re fortunate, as a result of truthfully, if AI had not come about, I don’t know what you possibly can do.” That’s as a result of, he defined, “till there are really aggressive merchandise, folks will preserve utilizing the most effective one.”
